When looking at historical trends, increases in home values have outpaced inflation. In this scenario, the value of a home increases more than inflation. In 1963, the Consumer Price Index was 30.6. This index is now 308.417, representing an increase of around 908%. During the same period, home values increased from $17,800 in 1963 to $417,700 at the end of 2023. This marks a rise of 2,247%.
From this data, we can deduce that home values increase at a faster rate than inflation. However, this isn't the only way inflation impacts the real estate market. The consumer price index for rent, has increased from 40 in 1962 to 412 as of January 2024. This is an increase of 930%, which nearly matches that of inflation. When comparing inflation and housing prices, home values have risen at a much quicker pace.
Inflation and Mortgage Rates
Are you curious about how inflation impacts mortgage rates? The Federal Reserve often increases rates when inflation rises, as inflation reports and mortgage rates are closely linked. When the Federal Reserve adjusts the Fed funds rate, banks and other financial institutions typically follow. At the end of 2021, the Fed funds rate was near 0%. As of August 2023, it has risen to 5.33%. This increase has pushed interest rates for a 30-year mortgage to just under 7%.
When the Federal Reserve raises the Fed funds rate, borrowers usually start saving money, leading to fewer loan applications. Most homeowners rely on mortgage loans to buy properties. In early 2021, interest rates were as low as 2.65%. For example, a 30-year mortgage of $300,000 at 2.65% would cost just over $353,000 over the life of the loan. If the interest rate is 7%, the total cost would be around $556,000. This 4.35% increase in interest rate results in paying over $200,000 more for the same home.
High inflation and interest rates can make buyers more cautious. However, the appeal of homeownership remains strong, driving many prospective buyers to enter the market. Given the long-standing low housing supply, it’s unlikely that these trends will reverse anytime soon.
Is Real Estate an Inflation Hedge?
Real estate and inflation share a long-standing and complex relationship. If you're contemplating adding property to your investment portfolio, you might have heard that real estate can serve as a hedge against inflation. While no investment is a guaranteed win, real estate often proves to be a reliable option. As real estate prices typically outpace inflation, you can reasonably expect the value of your portfolio to rise even when other investments falter.
High inflation presents different challenges for buyers and sellers. Buyers face low inventory and high prices. A balanced real estate market typically has around five to six months of housing inventory. However, by the end of 2023, the housing supply was just three-and-a-half months, which means buyers will continue to encounter high prices.
First-time buyers might consider waiting until interest rates drop, which is expected in the second half of 2024.
For sellers, inflation usually doesn't have a significant impact. Since home prices rise faster than inflation, their investments retain value. The current housing shortage is a major factor benefiting sellers. As long as there is a shortage, home values are likely to continue rising.
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